Accession Number : ADA301852

Title :   World Defense Track Prospects.

Descriptive Note : Final rept.,

Corporate Author : LOGISTICS MANAGEMENT INST MCLEAN VA

Personal Author(s) : Schwartz, Lawrence ; Wingrove, Earl R., III

PDF Url : ADA301852

Report Date : JUN 1994

Pagination or Media Count : 23

Abstract : The Office of the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Production Resources (DASD(PR) requested that the Logistics Management Institute (LME) project world defense trade from 1994 through the year 2000. DASD(PR) provided LMI with a data base on arms trade and potential economic and financial explanatory variables for 138 countries over the 1981-1991 period. The authors applied pooled cross-section and time series econometric techniques to test various international trade models. Arms trade is explained very well by contemporaneous and lagged military expenditures and the presence or absence of a cold war environment. Utilizing that model, various military activity scenarios are specified to provide a range of arms trade projections for the Middle East, East Asia, and the rest of the world. The implications for the U.S. defense industrial base are also discussed.

Descriptors :   *UNITED STATES, *PREDICTIONS, *INTERNATIONAL TRADE, *ECONOMETRICS, *DEFENSE INDUSTRY, DATA BASES, SCENARIOS, MILITARY OPERATIONS, COMMERCE, DEFENSE SYSTEMS, EXPORTS, PRODUCTION, LOGISTICS MANAGEMENT, TIME SERIES ANALYSIS, COLD REGIONS, COLD WAR, RESOURCES, INDUSTRIAL RELATIONS, FAR EAST.

Subject Categories : Economics and Cost Analysis
      Government and Political Science
      Logistics, Military Facilities and Supplies

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE