Accession Number : ADA302407

Title :   Long-Term Economic and Military Trends 1994-2O15. The United States and Asia.

Corporate Author : RAND CORP SANTA MONICA CA

Personal Author(s) : Wolf, Charles, Jr. ; Yeh, K. C. ; Bamezai, Anil ; Henry, Donald P. ; Kennedy, Michael

PDF Url : ADA302407

Report Date : 1995

Pagination or Media Count : 70

Abstract : The analysis presented in this report estimates trends from 1994 through 2015 using four salient economic and military indicators for five Asian countries (China, Japan, Korea, Taiwan, and India), as well as the United States. The four indicators are gross domestic product (GDP), per-capita GDP, military spending, and military capital stocks. Trends in these indicators, among many others, may reflect significant changes in the security environment in Asia. All of the estimates should be treated with caution because of the many uncertainties, as well as the often arguable assumptions, that underlie the results. The forecasts of economic and military trends are based on a hierarchically linked model in which GDP is derived from an aggregate national production function for each country; per-capita GDP is calculated by combining the GDP estimates with demographic data for each country; military spending is estimated as a specified (some- times varying) proportion of GDP; and each country's military capital is estimated as a specified (sometimes varying) proportion of military spending less depreciation of the previously accumulated military capital stock. All of our estimates are made in purchasing-power-parity (ppp) 1994 dollars. The appendix includes a discussion of the advantages and disadvantages of ppp exchange rates and the reasons for our use of this conversion procedure.

Descriptors :   *UNITED STATES, *FORECASTING, *MILITARY CAPABILITIES, *INDICATORS, *ASIA, *ECONOMIC MODELS, *WAR POTENTIAL, CONVERSION, INDIA, COMPUTATIONS, NATIONAL SECURITY, ENVIRONMENTS, PRODUCTION, ECONOMICS, MODELS, DEMOGRAPHY, REPORTS, RATES, JAPAN, ESTIMATES, PATTERNS, DOMESTIC, KOREA, MILITARY PROCUREMENT, LINKAGES, WESTERN SECURITY(INTERNATIONAL), CHINA, TAIWAN.

Subject Categories : Economics and Cost Analysis
      Military Operations, Strategy and Tactics

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE