Accession Number : ADA302852

Title :   A Technique for Estimating the Conditional Probability of Detecting a Non-Gaming Drug User.

Descriptive Note : Final rept.,

Corporate Author : NAVY PERSONNEL RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT CENTER SAN DIEGO CA

Personal Author(s) : Borack, Jules I.

PDF Url : ADA302852

Report Date : DEC 1995

Pagination or Media Count : 18

Abstract : In order to estimate the effectiveness of random urinalysis drug testing strategies, it is necessary to estimate the conditional probability of detecting drug users; that is, the probability that the user will test positive if selected for drug testing. This report presents a series of methodologies for estimating the conditional probability of detecting non-gaming drug users under a wide variety of drug usage and wear-off scenarios. The most general scenario assumes that the probability of detection depend upon the pattern of drug use prior to testing. For non-gaming users, it was observed that the probability of detection and the expected number of months until detection are proportional to the command monthly test rate.

Descriptors :   *TEST AND EVALUATION, *ESTIMATES, *DRUG USERS, SCENARIOS, METHODOLOGY, DETECTION, STRATEGY, PROBABILITY, RATES, PATTERNS, DRUGS.

Subject Categories : Pharmacology
      Information Science

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE