Accession Number : ADA303002

Title :   A Methodology to Assess Post-Launch Efforts to Counter Mobile Tactical Ballistic Missile Launchers.

Descriptive Note : Master's thesis,

Corporate Author : AIR FORCE INST OF TECH WRIGHT-PATTERSON AFB OH

Personal Author(s) : Hayes, Wayne H.

PDF Url : ADA303002

Report Date : DEC 1995

Pagination or Media Count : 145

Abstract : The Department of Defense has a requirement to quantify the force enhancement effects from various configurations of an envisioned multilayered Theater Missile Defense (TMD) system. TMD research accomplished to date has focused primarily on the pre-launch and in-flight tactical ballistic missile (TBM) operational phases while ignoring the post-launch phase during which mobile transporter-erector-launchers (TELs) are vulnerable to attack. No methodology currently exists to measure the effectiveness of various post-launch counter-TEL system configurations or their potential contribution to the overall TMD mission. This research uses the decision analysis technique of influence diagrams to model the post-launch counter-TEL process using notional variable values to approximate Operation Desert Storm counter-TEL capabilities. A probability of kill (Pk) goal is established based on its effect on the number of enemy missile launches. The study reveals that the level of enemy deception is the leading factor in post-launch counter-TEL success. No single variable under the decision maker's control can be altered to achieve the goal Pk. Additional analysis shows the most promising alternative for improving the baseline Pk is to improve the accuracy of launch point determinations and reduce the initial-sensor-to-shooter timeline; the joint effect being to drastically reduce the impact of enemy deception. Economic risk assessment of post-launch counter-TEL alternatives indicates the optimal decision policy may change according to the importance placed on cost. Finally, the methodology of using a two-level full-factorial design experiment to develop a meta-model is also examined.

Descriptors :   *ANTIMISSILE DEFENSE SYSTEMS, *GUIDED MISSILE COUNTERMEASURES, GUIDED MISSILES, CONTROL, METHODOLOGY, DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE, THEATER LEVEL OPERATIONS, OPTIMIZATION, ECONOMIC ANALYSIS, POLICIES, RISK, DECISION MAKING, IMPACT, KILL PROBABILITIES, PERSIAN GULF, LAYERS, ATTACK, VULNERABILITY, ACCURACY, PHASE, VARIABLES, COSTS, MOBILE, DECISION THEORY, INFLIGHT, LAUNCHING, ENEMY, TACTICAL WEAPONS, DECEPTION, DIAGRAMS.

Subject Categories : Antimissile Defense Systems
      Countermeasures

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE