Accession Number : ADA304152

Title :   A Comparison of Exponential Smoothing and Time Series Models for Forecasting Contract Estimates-at-Completion.

Descriptive Note : Technical rept.,

Corporate Author : ARMY COMMUNICATIONS-ELECTRONICS COMMAND FORT MONMOUTH NJ

Personal Author(s) : D'Accardi, Richard J.

PDF Url : ADA304152

Report Date : FEB 1996

Pagination or Media Count : 25

Abstract : Several models are embedded in Performance Analyzer (PA) that provide reasonable forecasts of program cost using information contained in contractor-provided monthly Cost Performance Reports (CPR). Considering the nature of this data, both Exponential Smoothing and Time Series models are good candidates to forecast Estimates-at-Completion (EAC). The thrust of this report is twofold. First, to expand the currently available forecasting models that are components of PA to include Time Series and Exponential Smoothing models. Second, for known contract cost performance data, using PA generated forecasts as a benchmark, a comparison of the models is made to highlight the differences between them and to provide a basis for choosing the best model for determining EAC's.

Descriptors :   *MATHEMATICAL MODELS, *CONTRACTS, *FORECASTING, *COST ESTIMATES, COMPARISON, REPORTS, TIME SERIES ANALYSIS, COSTS, ANALYZERS, EXPONENTIAL FUNCTIONS.

Subject Categories : Administration and Management
      Economics and Cost Analysis
      Statistics and Probability

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE