Accession Number : ADA304813

Title :   Demand Forecasting.

Descriptive Note : Final rept.,

Corporate Author : LOGISTICS MANAGEMENT INST MCLEAN VA

Personal Author(s) : Slay, F. M.

PDF Url : ADA304813

Report Date : AUG 1995

Pagination or Media Count : 63

Abstract : Although the United States Air Force, and other Military Services, forecast failures for many aircraft components on the basis of flying hours, it has long been recognized that the situation is not that simple. New war plans adopted by the Air Force in 1993 and reflecting Desert Storm experience and a regional contingency orientation made it crucial to improve forecasting methods. We examined data for over 200,000 sorties and show that failures for longer sorties are not strictly proportional to flying hours, and quantify the errors caused by assuring that they are. We demonstrate a method for correcting for this error and apply this correction to a number of fighter deployment spares packages. We compute the new costs and test the robustness of the new packages under various scenarios

Descriptors :   *LOGISTICS MANAGEMENT, MATHEMATICAL MODELS, SCENARIOS, MOBILITY, LOGISTICS SUPPORT, DEPLOYMENT, MILITARY REQUIREMENTS, RISK, AIRCRAFT MAINTENANCE, COST ANALYSIS, MOBILIZATION, OPERATIONAL READINESS, FORECASTING, ERROR ANALYSIS, ATTACK AIRCRAFT, JET FIGHTERS, AIRCRAFT EQUIPMENT, AIRLIFT OPERATIONS, AIR FORCE PLANNING, AIR FORCE OPERATIONS, ERROR CORRECTION CODES, SPARE PARTS.

Subject Categories : Logistics, Military Facilities and Supplies

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE