Accession Number : ADA306083

Title :   The Future Faces of the Cuban Economy: A Bayesian Forecast.

Descriptive Note : Master's thesis,

Corporate Author : NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA

Personal Author(s) : Bernales, Barton J.

PDF Url : ADA306083

Report Date : SEP 1995

Pagination or Media Count : 127

Abstract : This thesis investigates the applicability and results of a Bayesian approach used to forecast the future direction of the Cuban economy. The Castro regime, bound to a stagnant political ideology, has limited the options by which to save socialism and the revolution. This study first examines the historical, political and economic contexts that define the decision environment and then proceeds to formalize hypotheses, target variables and relevant events indicative of Cuba's economic direction. The qualification of the Cuban economy as either a centrally planned economy, a mixed economy or a predominantly market economy leads to forecast scenarios that create a framework upon which to apply Bayesi techniques. The results of the Bayesian forecast and sensitivity analysis support three major conclusions: (1) Bayesian analysis is an adroit methodology by which to explicitly determine the probabilities of Cuba's economic direction; (2) Cuba's economic direction given recent efforts and initiatives favors either a mixed or market economy; and (3) in contrast to the resurrection of the institutions of the Cuban revolution, the advancement of Cuba's economic recovery will warrant a predominantly market economy. (AN)

Descriptors :   *CUBA, *BAYES THEOREM, *ECONOMIC MODELS, MATHEMATICAL MODELS, SCENARIOS, POLICIES, MARKETING, DECISION MAKING, INVESTMENTS, LEADERSHIP, INTERNATIONAL POLITICS, FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT, ECONOMIC IMPACT, GOVERNMENT(FOREIGN), STRATEGIC ANALYSIS, TIME DEPENDENCE, INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, PROBABILITY, FORECASTING, TIME SERIES ANALYSIS, ACCURACY, THESES, REGRESSION ANALYSIS, MATHEMATICAL PREDICTION, CONVERGENCE, HYPOTHESES, INTERNATIONAL TRADE, MACROECONOMICS, AGRICULTURE, INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, EXTRAPOLATION, SOCIALISM.

Subject Categories : Economics and Cost Analysis
      Government and Political Science
      Statistics and Probability

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE