Accession Number : ADA306777

Title :   Ground Forces Battle Casualty Rate Patterns: The Empirical Evidence.

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Corporate Author : LOGISTICS MANAGEMENT INST MCLEAN VA

Personal Author(s) : Kuhn, George W.

PDF Url : ADA306777

Report Date : SEP 1989

Pagination or Media Count : 272

Abstract : A 4-year study of modern conventional ground operations (reported in 3 volumes: LMl FP703TR1/-TR2/-TR3) reveals patterns of personnel battle casualty rates strongly associated with patterns of operations. The first volume focuses mainly on discussing empirical evidence of rate patterns drawn from World War II, Korea, the Middle East wars, and the U.S. Army's National Training Center. Overall, the research combines insights from military theory, history, and operations research to investigate a new and large body of empirical data (much of it included in this volume) on battle casualty rate behavior in modem conventional operations. Findings include detailed and general rate characteristics associated qualitatively and quantitatively with major forms of conventional Operations. Qualitative indicators include critical operational parameters for rate assessment, and fundamental operational scenario characteristics. Quantitative indicators include probable ranges of average (mean) rates for army and corps-size forces for varying time periods and scenarios, distributions (max, 75, median, 25, min) of 1-day rates given those averages (for 5-and 10-day periods), measures of rate variability, rate frequencies, varying proportions of wounded casualties out of total, etc. Findings suggest that current U.S. and Allied casualty estimation methodologies and contemporary simulations fail to represent significant empirically-indicated rate problems, and further suggest the character and degree of the misrepresentation. Improved approaches are described to casualty estimation (to evaluate estimates made by whatever method or to construct estimates).

Descriptors :   *CONVENTIONAL WARFARE, *CASUALTIES, *ARMY OPERATIONS, *MARINE CORPS OPERATIONS, DATA BASES, MATHEMATICAL MODELS, COMPUTERIZED SIMULATION, SCENARIOS, EUROPE, MILITARY HISTORY, LOGISTICS SUPPORT, COMBAT EFFECTIVENESS, DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE, LAND WARFARE, MILITARY REQUIREMENTS, THEATER LEVEL OPERATIONS, KILL PROBABILITIES, BATTALION LEVEL ORGANIZATIONS, ARMY PERSONNEL, ARMY TRAINING, STATISTICAL DATA, ATTRITION, ESTIMATES, MANPOWER, WOUNDS AND INJURIES, MARINE CORPS PERSONNEL, ARMY PLANNING, BATTLES, TACTICAL WARFARE, LOGISTICS PLANNING, HIT PROBABILITIES.

Subject Categories : Military Operations, Strategy and Tactics
      Weapons Effects(biological)
      Logistics, Military Facilities and Supplies

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE