Accession Number : ADA306984

Title :   The Effects of Military Base Closures on Local Communities: A Short-Term Perspective,

Corporate Author : RAND CORP SANTA MONICA CA

Personal Author(s) : Dardia, Michael ; McCarthy, Kevin F. ; Malkin, Jesse ; Vernez, Georges

PDF Url : ADA306984

Report Date : 1996

Pagination or Media Count : 67

Abstract : Amid the decline in defense spending following the end of the Cold War, military base closures have prompted some of the most vocal public concerns. Public expectations of the impact often verge on the apocalyptic, and economic forecasts of the local effects seem to bolster such fears. While many studies have been done on the closure and revitalization process, little new work has been done on the immediate economic impacts of base closures since the wave of closures after the Vietnam War. This study examined the experience of the communities surrounding three of the largest bases closed in California since 1988. The bases were selected due to their large presence in the local community and to the fact that the communities were sufficiently isolated geographically that the effects could be expected to be both severe and measurable. The study used a case-study approach to examine the impact on nearby communities of three base closures: George Air Force Base (AFB), located in San Bernardino County, which closed in December 1992; Fort Ord, located in Monterey County, which closed in September 1994; Castle Air Force Base, located in Merced County, which was slated for closure in 1995 and from which 65 percent of its uniformed personnel had been vacated by October 1994. To assess the impact of base closures on local communities, the study used nine measures-two centering on changes in population, four on changes in employment, and three on changes in the housing market. The study investigated how the closures impacted the size of the total population in nearby communities and the size of those communities' school enrollments. It looked at the size of neighboring communities' labor forces, their unemployment rates, their taxable retail sales, and their municipal revenues.

Descriptors :   *COMMUNITIES, *ECONOMIC IMPACT, *AIR FORCE FACILITIES, *BASE CLOSURES, MILITARY FACILITIES, ECONOMICS, FORECASTING, RATES, SHORT RANGE(TIME), COLD WAR, CALIFORNIA, CIVILIAN POPULATION, VIETNAM, UNEMPLOYMENT.

Subject Categories : Economics and Cost Analysis
      Logistics, Military Facilities and Supplies

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE