Accession Number : ADA307014

Title :   Ardennes Campaign Simulation (ARCAS).

Descriptive Note : Final rept. Oct 93-Dec 95,

Corporate Author : ARMY CONCEPTS ANALYSIS AGENCY BETHESDA MD

Personal Author(s) : Bauman, Walter

PDF Url : ADA307014

Report Date : DEC 1995

Pagination or Media Count : 229

Abstract : The Ardennes Campaign Simulation (ARCAS) Study was performed to improve the credibility of the Stochastic Concepts Evaluation Model(STOCEM) simulation by comparing a STOCEM simulation of the WW II Ardennes campaign of 1944-45 with historical campaign results. Historical campaign data had been developed from archival sources into a computerized data base denoted as the Ardennes Campaign Simulation Data Base (ACSDB). The initial positions, configuration, strengths,compositions, and availabilities of forces for the campaign, as depicted in the ACSDB, were used to define the STOCEM force laydown for ARCAS. Simulation results (front-line movement, major system losses, and casualties) are compared with historical results from the ACSDB. Stochastic variability of average model outcomes is also quantified in terms of confidence limits and bounds. The comparison of simulation results with history is used to develop guidelines for algorithmic changes which improve model credibility of STOCEM. Insights on model verification and validation (V&V) are also developed.

Descriptors :   *COMPUTERIZED SIMULATION, *MILITARY HISTORY, *COMPARISON, *TACTICAL ANALYSIS, *ARCHIVES, DATA BASES, ALGORITHMS, SOURCES, STOCHASTIC PROCESSES, VERIFICATION, VALIDATION, VARIATIONS, CASUALTIES, LOSSES, CONFIDENCE LIMITS.

Subject Categories : Computer Programming and Software
      Military Operations, Strategy and Tactics

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE