Accession Number : ADA307147

Title :   Japan 2010: Prospective Profiles.

Descriptive Note : Research memo.,

Corporate Author : CENTER FOR NAVAL ANALYSES ALEXANDRIA VA

Personal Author(s) : Calder, Kent E.

PDF Url : ADA307147

Report Date : MAR 1996

Pagination or Media Count : 43

Abstract : The Commander, Seventh Fleet, asked CNA to assess the security environment 6f the Asia-Pacific Region (APR) between now and 2010. Through an examination of relevant economic, political, and demographic data and projections, this research memorandum seeks to identify alternative Japanese security-policy orientations in the year 2010. The Project's final report, The Dynamics of Security in the Asia-Pacific Region (CNA Research Memorandum 95-172, January 1996), discusses the implications of these trends (and of the probable trends in other countries of the region) for U.S. forces, particularly the Navy. A threefold analytical approach is used to analyze alternative Japanese futures. This involves first identifying predictable long-term trends and 'critical uncertainties' in the Japanese political economy-that is, crossroads with unusual significance in determining long-term futures. The approach then uses these systematically predictable and uncertain aspects as building blocks in developing scenarios of alternative futures.

Descriptors :   *FOREIGN POLICY, *POLITICAL SCIENCE, *FORECASTING, *JAPAN, *PROFILES, *WESTERN SECURITY(INTERNATIONAL), *INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, MILITARY FORCES(UNITED STATES), SCENARIOS, UNCERTAINTY, MILITARY STRATEGY, ECONOMICS, PREDICTIONS, DYNAMICS, DEMOGRAPHY, LONG RANGE(TIME), REGIONS, PATTERNS, MEDIA, PACIFIC OCEAN, ASIA, FACTOR ANALYSIS.

Subject Categories : Government and Political Science
      Military Operations, Strategy and Tactics

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE