Accession Number : ADA307272

Title :   Forecasting Future Accessions and Losses from the Delayed Entry Program.

Descriptive Note : Master's thesis,

Corporate Author : NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA DEPT OF OPERATIONS RESEARCH

Personal Author(s) : Milch, Paul R. ; Whitaker, Lyn R.

PDF Url : ADA307272

Report Date : MAR 1996

Pagination or Media Count : 83

Abstract : This research project attempted to forecast monthly accessions and losses from the Army's Delayed Entry Program (DEP) using information about the current length of stay of an individual in the DEP. This required the estimation of the conditional probabilities of an individual becoming an accession/loss from the DEP given his/her current length of stay using historical records. The accuracy of the procedure was tested by forecasting 'future' numbers of accessions/losses for several months for which the actual numbers of accessions/losses were available. This entire procedure was carried out separately for each of 22 mission box categories which the U.S. Army Recruiting Command uses to classify entrant to the DEP by gender, education, mental category, and prior service. Results of this forecasting effort were quite good when looking at an entire year, but the monthly forecasting results were off probably due to the fact that the DEP population display: seasonal behavior with respect to accession/loss from the DEP.

Descriptors :   *RECRUITING, *POPULATION, ARMY PERSONNEL, FORECASTING, ACCURACY, THESES, SEASONAL VARIATIONS, RECORDS, ARMY OPERATIONS.

Subject Categories : Personnel Management and Labor Relations

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE