Accession Number : ADA307640

Title :   China and Security in the Asian Pacific Region Through 2010.

Descriptive Note : Research memo,

Corporate Author : CENTER FOR NAVAL ANALYSES PHILADELPHIA PA

Personal Author(s) : Wilhelm, Alfred D., Jr

PDF Url : ADA307640

Report Date : MAR 1996

Pagination or Media Count : 93

Abstract : This research memorandum is part of a study sponsored by the Commander, Seventh Fleet, to assess the security environment of the Asia- Pacific Region (APR) between now and 2010. It focuses on the most probable evolutionary trends for China during this period. The implications for the forces and for the Navy are contained in the final report for the project, The Dynamics of Security in the Asia Pacific Region.' This research memorandum was reviewed by a group of China scholars at a meeting at CNA on May 5, 1995.2 Their comments have been incorporated in this overview. China's emergence as a major regional power will be one of the principal factors affecting the security politics, and economies of Asia and the Pacific between now and 2010. The forces shaping China's emergence are primarily internal, but include such important external factors as Beijing's perceptions of the intentions of its neighbors and of the United States. Much of the uncertainty about China's future course and impact on the region center on whether, and how, China accepts the norms of the international system that has grown since World War 2-norms that have not yet been tested by the rapid rise in national power of a large non-Western country. Alternative scenarios emerging from the rapid changes underway in China could have widely varying implications for this and other issues.

Descriptors :   *NATIONAL SECURITY, *GOVERNMENT(FOREIGN), *INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, *CHINA, SCENARIOS, UNCERTAINTY, POLICIES, COMPETITION, MARKETING, INVESTMENTS, INTERNATIONAL POLITICS, ECONOMIC IMPACT, STRATEGIC ANALYSIS, SOCIETIES, CROSS CULTURE(SOCIOLOGY), MILITARY FORCES(FOREIGN), JAPAN, MILITARY CAPABILITIES, CONFLICT, RESOURCE MANAGEMENT, AREA SECURITY, MILITARY MODERNIZATION, KOREA, MACROECONOMICS, MILITARY PLANNING, COOPERATION, TAIWAN, BALANCE OF POWER, INFLATION(ECONOMICS), SOUTH CHINA SEA.

Subject Categories : Government and Political Science

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE