Accession Number : ADA309124

Title :   Situation Assessment and Hypothesis Testing in an Evolving Situation.

Descriptive Note : Final rept. Sep 86-Aug 89,

Corporate Author : DECISION SCIENCE CONSORTIUM INC RESTON VA

Personal Author(s) : Tolcott, M. A. ; Marvin, F. F. ; Bresnick, T. A.

PDF Url : ADA309124

Report Date : MAR 1996

Pagination or Media Count : 57

Abstract : This research investigated the effects of early judgment on (1) the handling of new information, some of which confirmed and some of which contradicted the early judgment, and (2) the selection of hypothesis-testing indicators. The context was situation assessment by Army intelligence analysts during an evolving battlefield scenario. Unaided analysts typically ignored or underweighted contradictory evidence; their confidence in their early judgment tended to rise. A second group was given a brief tutorial on common decision biases and graphic displays that fostered awareness of uncertainty; in this group the tendencies were reduced (but not eliminated), and one-half of the group reversed their judgment at least once. A third group selected indicators; however, in the face of balanced feedback, their confidence remained constant rather than rising. The findings support the extension of confirmation bias theories to trained personnel performing realistic tasks. In addition, the results suggest that when decision makes the indicators they believe to be important, they pay more attention to contradictory evidence than when they are the passive recipients of new information.

Descriptors :   *DATA MANAGEMENT, *HYPOTHESES, *JUDGEMENT(PSYCHOLOGY), *ARMY INTELLIGENCE, TEST AND EVALUATION, SCENARIOS, UNCERTAINTY, DECISION MAKING, BATTLEFIELDS, THEORY, TEACHING METHODS, TEST METHODS, DISPLAY SYSTEMS, GRAPHICS, PERSONNEL, BIAS, INDICATORS, AWARENESS, ANALYSTS.

Subject Categories : Psychology
      Military Intelligence

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE