Accession Number : ADA310974

Title :   Selecting Remediation Technologies Through A 'Technical Risk' Index. An Application of Multi-Attribute Utility Theory.

Descriptive Note : Technical rept.,

Corporate Author : AIR FORCE INST OF TECH WRIGHT-PATTERSON AFB OH

Personal Author(s) : Timmermann, Thomas J. ; Kloeber, Jack M., Jr. ; Jackson, Jack A. ; Deckro, Richard F.

PDF Url : ADA310974

Report Date : 20 JAN 1996

Pagination or Media Count : 87

Abstract : This study applies multi-attribute utility theory to the DOE's problem of selecting the least risky technologies to develop. It focuses on two aspects of the technical risks involved with emerging technologies: the risk of successful development (measured by the likelihood of successful R&D completion within seven years) and the risk of successful implementation in the field (measured by the likelihood of the technology performing as anticipated). Three experienced contractors working with the Landfill Stabilization Focus Area served in the roles of DOE technology managers. Their preferences, expressed as MAUT utility functions, were assessed for all seven functional remediation processes. These utilities are plotted as three-dimensional surfaces over a plane formed by the two technical risk measures, graphically depicting the trade-offs each 'decision maker' felt was appropriate between the two measures. Their utility surfaces for treatment technologies were then used with a set often treatment methods for which expert estimates of the two risk measures were available. The resulting rankings of technologies are analyzed to examine the suitability of the methodology. Recommendations for the use of this approach with real DOE managers are presented.

Descriptors :   *MANAGEMENT PLANNING AND CONTROL, *RISK, *ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT, MATHEMATICAL MODELS, REMOVAL, COST EFFECTIVENESS, TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER, MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATION, CONTAINMENT(GENERAL), DECISION THEORY, LIFE CYCLE COSTS, TRADE OFF ANALYSIS, RESEARCH MANAGEMENT, WASTE DISPOSAL, WASTE MANAGEMENT, ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION, WASTE TREATMENT, TECHNOLOGY FORECASTING.

Subject Categories : Administration and Management
      Environmental Health and Safety

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE