Accession Number : ADA311782

Title :   The Use of Financial Scoring Models for the Prediction of Business Failure: Implications for Department of Defense Financial Analysis.

Descriptive Note : Master's thesis,

Corporate Author : NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA

Personal Author(s) : Candreva, Philip J.

PDF Url : ADA311782

Report Date : JUN 1996

Pagination or Media Count : 115

Abstract : The purpose of this thesis is to improve the financial analysis of private sector firms as conducted within the Department of Defense by applying knowledge from the literature related to the use of financial scoring models to predict business failure. First, an original, six-dimensional framework was developed for thoroughly analyzing the literature related to financial scoring models. Second, using the framework, the literature was comprehensively evaluated to assess the state of the art in the use of financial scoring models to predict business failure. Third, the state of financial analysis of private sector firms within DoD was reviewed, both the activities and the methods. Fourth, the literature related to financial analysis within the DoD context was evaluated. Finally, recommendations were made to improve DoD financial analysis based upon the findings in the literature. Those recommendations include a reexamination of the definition of failure and the identification of variables that accurately predict that definition, and the need to construct defensible models.

Descriptors :   *FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT, DATA BASES, MATHEMATICAL MODELS, DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE, POLICIES, MANAGEMENT PLANNING AND CONTROL, INVESTMENTS, ACCOUNTING, COST EFFECTIVENESS, ECONOMIC IMPACT, MULTIVARIATE ANALYSIS, RANDOM VARIABLES, ACCURACY, THESES, PROBABILITY DENSITY FUNCTIONS, REGRESSION ANALYSIS, MATHEMATICAL PREDICTION, COST MODELS, RESOURCE MANAGEMENT, DEFENSE INDUSTRY, MACROECONOMICS, MILITARY BUDGETS, DISCRIMINATE ANALYSIS, AUDITING, BANKRUPTCY.

Subject Categories : Economics and Cost Analysis
      Statistics and Probability

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE