Accession Number : ADA313667

Title :   The Economic and Budget Outlook. An Outlook.

Corporate Author : CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE (U S CONGRESS) WASHINGTON DC

PDF Url : ADA313667

Report Date : AUG 1996

Pagination or Media Count : 56

Abstract : The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that the deficit for fiscal year 1996 will be $116 billion, $28 billion lower than the amount that CBO projected last May and $48 billion less than the deficit in 1995. The deficit will decline for the fourth straight year and will be at the lowest nominal level since 1981. At about 1.5 percent, it will probably also be the lowest as a percentage of gross domestic product since 1974. A $22 billion increase in projected revenues in 1996--prompted primarily by unexpectedly high receipts reported after CBO had completed its May baseline--accounts for about 80 percent of the change in CBO's estimated deficit. At the same time, projected spending for the year is down by $7 billion compared with the May estimates, further reducing the deficit. The economy has grown somewhat faster and unemployment has been lower in the first half of this year than CBO had forecast but the current outlook for the rest of 1996 and for 1997 is not significantly different from that described in May. CBO expects that real growth will average 2 percent a year from now through the end of 1997 and that unemployment will be moderately higher next year. Interest rates are expected to be lower in 1997 than they have been in recent months and inflation will most likely remain near the current 3 percent average annual rate. Because little time has passed since CBO's May report, and because no major news has emerged to alter the economic outlook, CBO has not prepared a new economic forecast. As a result, it has not revised its budget projections for 1997 through 2006.

Descriptors :   *ECONOMICS, *FORECASTING, *ESTIMATES, *FEDERAL BUDGETS, CONGRESS, POLICIES, UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT, MODIFICATION, GROWTH(GENERAL), RATES, TIME, DEFICIENCIES, UNEMPLOYMENT.

Subject Categories : Economics and Cost Analysis
      Government and Political Science

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE