Accession Number : ADA316509

Title :   Separation or Unification for Taiwan: An Economic Comparison.

Descriptive Note : Final rept.,

Corporate Author : INSTITUTE FOR DEFENSE ANALYSES ALEXANDRIA VA

Personal Author(s) : Bell, James P.

PDF Url : ADA316509

Report Date : SEP 1996

Pagination or Media Count : 130

Abstract : The continuing separation of Taiwan from mainland China, and unofficial U.S. support for Taiwan, is a major obstacle to a stable U.S. relationship with China. This paper examines whether growing economic ties between Taiwan and the mainland might eventually caused Taiwan to accept unification as a special administrative region (SAR) under the People's Republic of China (PRC). In particular, it compares the costs and benefits for Taiwan of SAR status with the alternative of losing all economic ties to the mainland. At some point in the future, the PRC might present such an ultimatum to Taiwan. The paper concludes that, from a short-run economic perspective, Taiwan might be better off as a SAR. Over a longer planning horizon, if forced to choose, Taiwan would probably be better off without ties to China than to be a SAR under mainland authority. This work suggests that no near-term solution is likely, and that U.S. commitments documented in the Taiwan Relations Act will continue to block stable U.S.-China ties.

Descriptors :   *FOREIGN POLICY, *UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT, *ECONOMICS, *COMPARISON, *INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, *CHINA, *TAIWAN, INVESTMENTS, GOVERNMENT(FOREIGN), MILITARY FORCES(FOREIGN), POLITICAL ALLIANCES, COSTS, THREAT EVALUATION, SEPARATION, INTERNATIONAL TRADE, BENEFITS, GEOGRAPHY.

Subject Categories : Economics and Cost Analysis
      Government and Political Science

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE