Accession Number : ADA316796

Title :   2015: Power and Progress,

Corporate Author : NATIONAL DEFENSE UNIV WASHINGTON DC INST FOR NATIONAL STRATEGIC STUDIES

Personal Author(s) : Cronin, Patrick M.

PDF Url : ADA316796

Report Date : JUL 1996

Pagination or Media Count : 160

Abstract : In 20 years, the international system will be dominated by a group of great powers. Depending on circumstances, these may number as few as two or three, or as many as five or six. In any case, the United States will remain the greatest, but its supremacy may be challenged by one or more great powers, most likely to be Japan, Russia, India, and China. There may well be a nonstate great power of a different nature: a European Confederation. Alternatively, if the European Union fails to achieve confederal status, a renationalized Germany might emerge as the mightiest state in Europe, although perhaps not quite enjoying the status of a great power. Finally, two other countries may be approaching great-power status in the year 2015: Indonesia and Brazil. But even under optimum conditions, neither likely could achieve true great-power status before the third decade of the 21st century, and probably not until a decade or two later.

Descriptors :   *NATIONAL SECURITY, *INTERNATIONAL POLITICS, *TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER, *FORECASTING, *MILITARY PLANNING, *BALANCE OF POWER, *INFORMATION SCIENCES, STRESSES, INDIA, EUROPE, UNITED STATES, DEMOGRAPHY, JAPAN, GERMANY, RUSSIA, MIGRATION, LABOR MARKETS, ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION, INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, CHINA.

Subject Categories : Information Science
      Government and Political Science
      Military Operations, Strategy and Tactics

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE