Accession Number : ADA317467
Title : Shipboard Casualty Forecasting: Adjustments to Ship Hit Probabilities.
Descriptive Note : Final rept. Aug 95-Aug 96,
Corporate Author : NAVAL HEALTH RESEARCH CENTER SAN DIEGO CA
Personal Author(s) : Blood, Christopher G. ; Marks, Jeffrey S. ; Odowick, Michael S.
PDF Url : ADA317467
Report Date : 30 JUL 1996
Pagination or Media Count : 27
Abstract : Adjustment factors needed to contemporize World War Il-based hit probabilities of the SHIPCAS casualty projection model were investigated. Subject Matter Experts provided quantitive responses corresponding to the perceived shifts in hit probability associated with each present-day weapon system when compared to the baseline hit rate. The largest projected increases in hit probability were associated with submarine-launched guided missiles and submarine launched torpedos with passive homing systems. Hit probabilities associated with individual weapon system% ranged from a 90% decrease to a 233% increase when compared to WWII ship hit likelihood. Empirical data also indicated that ship hit likelihood decreased with distance from land objective.
Descriptors : *FORECASTING, *SHIPBOARD, *CASUALTIES, *HIT PROBABILITIES, GUIDED MISSILES, MILITARY HISTORY, SHIPS, QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS, TORPEDOES, MODELS, WEAPON SYSTEMS, PASSIVE SYSTEMS, LITTORAL ZONES, HOMING, SUBMARINE LAUNCHED, WEAPON DELIVERY.
Subject Categories : Weapons Effects(biological)
Statistics and Probability
Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE