Accession Number : ADA317467

Title :   Shipboard Casualty Forecasting: Adjustments to Ship Hit Probabilities.

Descriptive Note : Final rept. Aug 95-Aug 96,

Corporate Author : NAVAL HEALTH RESEARCH CENTER SAN DIEGO CA

Personal Author(s) : Blood, Christopher G. ; Marks, Jeffrey S. ; Odowick, Michael S.

PDF Url : ADA317467

Report Date : 30 JUL 1996

Pagination or Media Count : 27

Abstract : Adjustment factors needed to contemporize World War Il-based hit probabilities of the SHIPCAS casualty projection model were investigated. Subject Matter Experts provided quantitive responses corresponding to the perceived shifts in hit probability associated with each present-day weapon system when compared to the baseline hit rate. The largest projected increases in hit probability were associated with submarine-launched guided missiles and submarine launched torpedos with passive homing systems. Hit probabilities associated with individual weapon system% ranged from a 90% decrease to a 233% increase when compared to WWII ship hit likelihood. Empirical data also indicated that ship hit likelihood decreased with distance from land objective.

Descriptors :   *FORECASTING, *SHIPBOARD, *CASUALTIES, *HIT PROBABILITIES, GUIDED MISSILES, MILITARY HISTORY, SHIPS, QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS, TORPEDOES, MODELS, WEAPON SYSTEMS, PASSIVE SYSTEMS, LITTORAL ZONES, HOMING, SUBMARINE LAUNCHED, WEAPON DELIVERY.

Subject Categories : Weapons Effects(biological)
      Statistics and Probability
      Marine Engineering

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE