Accession Number : ADA318780

Title :   Weapons Systems Effectiveness and Minimum Cost for Ballistic Missile Defense Alternatives,

Corporate Author : INSTITUTE FOR DEFENSE ANALYSES ALEXANDRIA VA

Personal Author(s) : Kohlberg, Ira ; Greer, William

PDF Url : ADA318780

Report Date : 1996

Pagination or Media Count : 10

Abstract : The use of SCUD missiles by the Iraqis in the 1991 Gulf War signaled the emergence of a new threat against which current U.S. defenses are limited. One message from the Gulf War is that defending ports, strategic off-load air fields, marshaling areas, and population centers against Theater Ballistic Missiles (TBM) will be of mounting concern in future conflicts. The Ballistic Missile Defense Organization (BMDO), in conjunction with the military services, is currently evaluating various Theater Ballistic Missile Defense (TBMD) systems to defend critical friendly assets (called targets in this paper) against current and projected short range, medium range, and long range TBMs. The cost for defending these assets depends on the number and type of threat TBMs that emerge, and the mix of defensive missiles arrayed against them. There are several problems associated with designing the most cost effective mix of TBMD systems. First, the time needed to deploy all systems relative to the warning time available is uncertain. Second, even if enemy TBM inventories are known (and there is some uncertainty here, especially in projected forces), the targeting strategy may be unknown. We don't know, for example, precisely what mix of short, medium, and long range TBMs will be used against a particular target. How then, in the face of such uncertainties, can we plan to acquire reasonable defenses in the most cost-effective way? In this paper we develop the first steps of an approach to determine the TBMD architecture that minimizes cost or maximizes effectiveness. This approach is based on a statistical theory of enemy attack and TBMD strategies, and employs the general formalism used earlier by one of us (Kohlberg 1980) 1 for a very different problem in nuclear C survivability.

Descriptors :   *COST EFFECTIVENESS, *ANTIMISSILE DEFENSE SYSTEMS, *WEAPON SYSTEM EFFECTIVENESS, MILITARY FORCES(UNITED STATES), GUIDED MISSILES, NUCLEAR EXPLOSIONS, UNCERTAINTY, WARFARE, THEATER LEVEL OPERATIONS, STRATEGY, SURVIVABILITY, THREATS, THEORY, ATTACK, STATISTICS, LONG RANGE(TIME), TIME, COSTS, LONG RANGE(DISTANCE), TARGETING, SHORT RANGE(DISTANCE), ENEMY, MESSAGE PROCESSING, WARNING SYSTEMS, WEAPON MIXES.

Subject Categories : Economics and Cost Analysis
      Antimissile Defense Systems

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE