Accession Number : ADA320809

Title :   Applying Probabilistic Risk Assessment and Decision Analysis Techniques to Avoid Excessive Remedial Investigation Costs.

Descriptive Note : Master's thesis,

Corporate Author : AIR FORCE INST OF TECH WRIGHT-PATTERSON AFB OH

Personal Author(s) : Hinojos, Alejandro

PDF Url : ADA320809

Report Date : DEC 1996

Pagination or Media Count : 184

Abstract : The majority of remediation resources have been consumed by costly and lengthy remedial investigation studies to characterize the human health risk. Unable to deal directly with the uncertainty resulting from the convolution of the uncertainties in a multitude of variables, and heavily persuaded by the liabilities, decision makers and regulators have relied on conservative assumptions and more studies to take appropriate actions. The main objective of this research is to provide tools and techniques to aid risk analysts in determining whether it would be beneficial to gather additional information or whether the decision to take an appropriate action can be made without further investigation. This research provides some probabilistic risk assessment and decision analysis techniques to avoid using simple conservative assumptions to deal with the complex uncertainties to evaluate the value of information of additional studies in the complex remediation decision process. The methodologies in this research were tested on Operable Unit 2, Wright-Patterson AFB, Ohio, and Site 4, Air Force Plant 44, Arizona.

Descriptors :   *COST EFFECTIVENESS, *ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT, *STATISTICAL DECISION THEORY, COMPUTERIZED SIMULATION, UNCERTAINTY, RISK, DECISION MAKING, TOXIC HAZARDS, PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION FUNCTIONS, COST ESTIMATES, THESES, MONTE CARLO METHOD, PROBABILITY DENSITY FUNCTIONS, FEASIBILITY STUDIES, AIR FORCE FACILITIES, RESOURCE MANAGEMENT, INFORMATION THEORY, ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION, DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS, SOIL REMEDIATION.

Subject Categories : Economics and Cost Analysis
      Air Pollution and Control
      Statistics and Probability

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE