Accession Number : ADA326220

Title :   Modeling the Observer in Target Acquisition.

Descriptive Note : Final rept. Oct 94-Jun 95,

Corporate Author : INSTITUTE FOR DEFENSE ANALYSES ALEXANDRIA VA

Personal Author(s) : Silk, James D.

PDF Url : ADA326220

Report Date : APR 1997

Pagination or Media Count : 53

Abstract : Models of target acquisition by human observers are probabilistic. Two reasons for the indeterminate nature of the models are: (1) the observer ensemble includes individuals with varying levels of competence in target acquisition, and (2) the target acquisition process is itself (at least in part) a random process. Each of the two commonly used combat simulations, CASTFOREM and JANUS, assumes that (a different) one of these reasons completely accounts for the indeterminacy, and ignores the other. Although the distinction is irrelevant for the simple one-on-one case, it has recently been shown that the choice can profoundly affect the outcomes of more realistic many-on-many engagements. We propose a model in which target detection probability is a function of both a target statistic and an observer statistic. Our analysis of recently compiled observer test data validates the model and provides it with the correct quantitative balance between variations among observers and the inherently stochastic component of target acquisition. We provide a working simulation that precisely represents our model. The algorithm is suitable for insertion into the wargames; it builds on the approaches of its predecessors but requires only a small increase in complexity.

Descriptors :   *MATHEMATICAL MODELS, *TARGET ACQUISITION, *STATISTICAL SAMPLES, *TARGET DETECTION, OBSERVERS, STOCHASTIC PROCESSES, PROBABILITY, TARGETS, NIGHT VISION.

Subject Categories : Statistics and Probability
      Target Direction, Range and Position Finding

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE