Accession Number : ADA326961

Title :   A Prediction Model to Forecast the Cost Impact from a Break in the Production Schedule.

Descriptive Note : Technical memo.,

Corporate Author : NATIONAL AERONAUTICS AND SPACE ADMINISTRATION HUNTSVILLE AL GEORGE C MARSHALL SPACE FLIGHT CENTER

Personal Author(s) : Delionback, Leon M.

PDF Url : ADA326961

Report Date : SEP 1977

Pagination or Media Count : 38

Abstract : The losses which are experienced after a break or stoppage in sequence of a production cycle portends an extremely complex situation and involves numerous variables, some of uncertain quantity and quality. There are no discrete formulas to define the losses during a gap in production. The techniques which are employed are therefore related to a prediction or forecast of the losses that take place, based on the conditions which exist in the production environment. Such parameters as learning curve slope, number of predecessor units, and length of time the production sequence is halted are utilized in formulating a prediction model. The pertinent current publications related to this subject are few in number, but are reviewed to provide an understanding of the problem. Example problems are illustrated together with appropriate trend curves to show the approach. Solved problems are also given to show the application of the models to actual cases or production breaks in the real world.

Descriptors :   *PREDICTIONS, *LEARNING CURVES, MATHEMATICAL MODELS, PRODUCTION, FORECASTING, DECISION THEORY, FIGURE OF MERIT.

Subject Categories : Numerical Mathematics
      Mfg & Industrial Eng & Control of Product Sys

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE