Accession Number : ADA328489
Title : Visualization and Judgmental Forecasting of Simulated Battles.
Descriptive Note : Final rept. Apr 91-Apr 93,
Corporate Author : ARMY RESEARCH INST FIELD UNIT FORT LEAVENWORTH KS
Personal Author(s) : Solick, Robert E. ; Spiegel, Douglas K. ; Lussler, James W. ; Keene, S. D.
PDF Url : ADA328489
Report Date : MAY 1997
Pagination or Media Count : 60
Abstract : Army officers were given information about battles fought in training exercises. They were required to report upon the current situation and to predict future locations and strengths of the forces involved. A battery of cognitive tests was also administered. Accuracy of judgment was associated with experience and with some of the cognitive abilities tested particularly with memory for spatial relationships at which the officers excelled. However, the influence of experience was dependent upon the inherent predictability of the scenario experienced officers did better on a normal mission plan but were less accurate on a plan that was poorly executed. The overall pattern of results suggested that accuracy is strongly influenced by the pace of battle. Static or slowly changing conditions were relatively easy to visualize and predict, but rapidly changing conditions were associated with large increases in error.
Descriptors : *FORECASTING, *BATTLE MANAGEMENT, SIMULATION, MILITARY STRATEGY, PREDICTIONS, PERFORMANCE TESTS, COGNITION, PATTERNS, MILITARY TRAINING, OFFICER PERSONNEL, ARMY, MILITARY TACTICS.
Subject Categories : Military Operations, Strategy and Tactics
Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE