Accession Number : ADA331252

Title :   Operationally-Relevant Test Lengths: A Decision-Analysis Approach

Descriptive Note : Master's thesis

Corporate Author : NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA

Personal Author(s) : Gorman, John R.

PDF Url : ADA331252

Report Date : MAR 1997

Pagination or Media Count : 67

Abstract : This thesis approaches the question of How much testing is enough? by formulating a model for the combat situation in which the weapon (e.g., missile) will be used. Methods of Bayesian statistics are employed to allow the decision maker to benefit from prior information gained in the testing of similar systems by forecasting the operational gain from acceptance. A Microsoft Excel V7.0 spreadsheet serves as the user interface, and Visual Basic for Applications, Excel's built in macro-language, is the language used to produce the source code. The methodology accommodates two different tactical usages for the missile: a single shot, or a salvo of two shots. The missile might be acceptable if used in the two-shot salvo mode, but not in the single shot mode, and this would imply a greater cost per mission. In the end the missile might not be judged cost effective as compared to a competitive system. If the model proposed is (or can become) adequate much can be calculated/estimated before any operational tests are made. This could assist in economizing on operational testing.

Descriptors :   *DECISION MAKING, *WEAPON SYSTEM EFFECTIVENESS, *BAYES THEOREM, TEST AND EVALUATION, SOFTWARE ENGINEERING, COMBAT EFFECTIVENESS, COST EFFECTIVENESS, FIRING TESTS(ORDNANCE), THESES, OPERATIONAL EFFECTIVENESS, DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS, STATISTICAL DECISION THEORY, SALVOS, GRAPHICAL USER INTERFACE.

Subject Categories : Statistics and Probability
      Operations Research

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE