Accession Number : ADA331448

Title :   A Stochastic Enhancement to the Analyst's Workbench

Descriptive Note : Master thesis

Corporate Author : NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA

Personal Author(s) : Melton, Andrew W.

PDF Url : ADA331448

Report Date : SEP 1996

Pagination or Media Count : 66

Abstract : The Analyst's WorkBench is a deterministic integrated framework developed and used by the Weapons Planning Group at NAWC China Lake. The model has no stochastic capability which requires all analysis to be conducted using parameters based on expected values of occurrence. This thesis develops a stochastic enhancement that can be incorporated in the Analyst's Workbench. Independent identically distributed (IID) events can be generated by calls to the enhancement as a parametric input. To demonstrate the application of a stochastic process within the Analyst's WorkBench, a test scenario of a ship defense model is developed. A large scale missile attack is simulated deterministically and stochastically to demonstrate the differences of a random probability of successful defense vice an expected value of success. It is shown that the stochastic results provide a more realistic simulation and that the deterministic results overstate the capability of a system subject to random events that can be described by a statistical distribution.

Descriptors :   *MATHEMATICAL MODELS, *STOCHASTIC PROCESSES, *SHIP DEFENSE SYSTEMS, SCENARIOS, PARAMETRIC ANALYSIS, ANTIMISSILE DEFENSE SYSTEMS, PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION FUNCTIONS, RANDOM VARIABLES, THESES, WAR GAMES, SHIP MODELS, OBJECT ORIENTED PROGRAMMING, GRAPHICAL USER INTERFACE.

Subject Categories : Operations Research
      Marine Engineering

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE