Accession Number : ADA331481

Title :   Etiology of an Intelligence Estimate.

Descriptive Note : Research rept. Aug 96-Apr 97,

Corporate Author : INDUSTRIAL COLL OF THE ARMED FORCES WASHINGTON DC

Personal Author(s) : Shultis, Donald C., Jr

PDF Url : ADA331481

Report Date : APR 1997

Pagination or Media Count : 61

Abstract : This study deals with improving one of the United States defense intelligence community's most important tasks - assessments of potentially hostile nations future force capabilities. It is dedicated to the premise that intelligence can do a better job of meeting customers' needs for future estimates despite being in an era of significantly restricted budgets and reduced personnel. The approach taken is somewhat unique compared to most current literature about improving intelligence. Most, like the recent report by the Commission on the Roles and Capabilities of the US Intelligence Community, dated March 1, 1996, look at block diagrams and organizational charts to figure out better functional layouts. Other views, like General Kroesan's comments, take the customer's perspective as their approach to improve intelligence. By contrast this study looks at the internal intelligence process that produces estimates. This approach focuses on improving the internal ways futures estimates are done. The emphasis here is directly upon improving the process and the product, not on reorganizing the institutions.

Descriptors :   *MILITARY INTELLIGENCE, *METHODOLOGY, *ESTIMATES, *MILITARY FORCE LEVELS, MILITARY FORCES(FOREIGN), INTERNAL, COMBAT FORCES, INFORMATION PROCESSING.

Subject Categories : Military Intelligence

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE