Accession Number : ADA332582

Title :   Counterfactuals and Policy Analysis in Structural Models

Descriptive Note : Annual technical rept.

Corporate Author : CALIFORNIA UNIV LOS ANGELES COGNITIVE SYSTEMS LAB

Personal Author(s) : Balke, Alexander A. ; Pearl, Judea

PDF Url : ADA332582

Report Date : JUN 1995

Pagination or Media Count : 9

Abstract : Evaluation of counterfactual queries (e.g., 'If A were true, would C have been true?') is important to fault diagnosis, planning, determination of liability, and policy analysis. We present a method for evaluating counter-factuals when the underlying causal model is represented by structural models a nonlinear generalization of the simultaneous equations models commonly used in econometrics and social sciences. This new method provides a coherent means for evaluating policies involving the control of variables which, prior to enacting the policy were influenced by other variables in the system.

Descriptors :   *MODELS, *STRUCTURAL PROPERTIES, CONTROL, POLICIES, VARIABLES, DIAGNOSIS(GENERAL), ECONOMETRICS, FAULTS, SOCIAL SCIENCES, SIMULTANEOUS EQUATIONS.

Subject Categories : Computer Hardware
      Cybernetics

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE