Accession Number : ADA470324

Title :   National Intelligence Estimate: The Terrorist Threat to the US Homeland

Descriptive Note : Intelligence rept.

Corporate Author : OFFICE OF THE DIRECTOR OF NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE WASHINGTON DC

PDF Url : ADA470324

Report Date : JUL 2007

Pagination or Media Count : 8

Abstract : National Intelligence Estimates (NIEs) are the Director of National Intelligence's (DNI) most authoritative written judgments concerning national security issues. They contain the coordinated judgments of the Intelligence Community regarding the likely course of future events. Among the key judgments in this NIE are the following: the U.S. Homeland will face a persistent and evolving terrorist threat over the next 3 years, with the main threat coming from Islamic terrorist groups and cells, especially al-Qa'ida; greatly increased worldwide counterterrorism efforts over the past 5 years have constrained the ability of al-Qa'ida to attack the U.S. Homeland again and have led terrorist groups to perceive the Homeland as a harder target to strike than on 9/11; al-Qa'ida is and will remain the most serious terrorist threat to the Homeland, as its central leadership continues to plan high-impact plots, while pushing others in extremist Sunni communities to mimic its efforts; al-Qa'ida will continue to enhance its capabilities to attack the Homeland through greater cooperation with regional terrorist groups; al-Qa'ida's Homeland plotting is likely to continue to focus on prominent political, economic, and infrastructure targets with the goal of producing mass casualties, visually dramatic destruction, significant economic aftershocks, and/or fear among the U.S. population; Lebanese Hizballah may be more likely to consider attacking the Homeland over the next 3 years if it perceives the United States as posing a direct threat to the group or Iran; the spread of radical Internet sites, increasingly aggressive anti-U.S. rhetoric and actions, and the growing number of radical, self-generating cells in Western countries indicate that the radical and violent segment of the West's Muslim population is expanding; and globalization and technological advances will continue to enable even small numbers of alienated people to connect with one another and mobilize resources to attack.

Descriptors :   *TERRORISTS, *UNITED STATES, *INTELLIGENCE, *THREATS, *TARGETS, *TERRORISM, *ORGANIZATIONS, LEBANON, MOBILIZATION, ATTACK, HOMELAND SECURITY, INFRASTRUCTURE, CONFIDENCE LEVEL, IRAN, COUNTERTERRORISM, INTERNET, CASUALTIES, FEAR, ESTIMATES, DESTRUCTION, CELLS, NATIONAL SECURITY, LEADERSHIP, GROUP DYNAMICS, ECONOMIC IMPACT, ISLAM

Subject Categories : Military Intelligence
      Unconventional Warfare

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE