Accession Number : ADM000327

Title :   Markov Chains for Random Urinalysis III: Daily Model and Drug Kinetics (Computer Diskette).

Corporate Author : NAVY PERSONNEL RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT CENTER SAN DIEGO CA

Report Date : JAN 1994

Pagination or Media Count : 1

Abstract : File characteristics: Text file (1 file); Binary character set. Physical description: 1 computer diskette; 3 1/2 in.; high density; 1.4MB. System requirements: Postscript compatible; Post-script; Postscript printer. This is the third in a series of reports on the use of Markov chains for the analysis of random urinalysis of random urinalysis programs. A Markov model for random drug urinalysis testing that allows for daily variations in testing probabilities was developed. The formulation allows for any fixed length cycle (e.g. week, month). Drug kinetics and drug user gaming are incorporated into the Markov model via conditional probabilities. The Markov chain provides estimates of the distribution of time to detection and mean time to detection. The analyses have shown that time to detection varies dramatically with varying (observed) daily testing rates. Unequal daily testing rates provide opportunities for gaming drug users to extend the mean time to detection. Gaming is not possible with equal probabilities of testing across days.

Descriptors :   *MAGNETIC DISKS, *URINALYSIS, *DRUG USERS, KINETICS, COCAINE, VARIATIONS, NAVAL PERSONNEL.

Subject Categories : Recording and Playback Devices
      Anatomy and Physiology
      Sociology and Law

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE