Accession Number : ADP000642

Title :   An Impact Assessment Algorithm for R&D Project Risk Analysis,

Corporate Author : ARMY AIR MOBILITY RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT LAB MOFFETT FIELD CALIF

Personal Author(s) : Hwang,John D. ; Kodani,Hifu M.

Report Date : 1973

Pagination or Media Count : 13

Abstract : Materiel acquisition program/project management is concerned with impacts, should the project experience perturbations in terms of changes in schedule, funds, and performance goals. The management must analyze the potential impact to derive a priori information as to possible outcomes and to formulate alternative courses of actions, with risk as the fourth dimensional measure for trade-off considerations. This paper presents a technique to facilitate the problem of impact assessment, particularly technical uncertainties. The technique incorporates potential problems, consequences of such problems in the event that they occur, judgment as to efforts needed to provide to resolve those problems, and assessment as to schedule and cost impacts to the project. It provides a simple approach to the collection of data from technical and managerial personnel. The most significant part is that an automated algorithm has been developed which computes probability of program success, total cost impact, and probability distribution curves for cost impact in terms of likelihood of program success.

Descriptors :   *Operations research, *Algorithms, *Risk, *Research management, *Management planning and control, Symposia, Army research, Army procurement, Management, Decision theory, Decision making, Impact, Trade off analysis, Planning programming budgeting, Judgement(Psychology), Problem solving, Scheduling, Economic impact, Probability

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE