Accession Number : ADP001224

Title :   Analytical Approaches That Result in Cost Estimating Error,

Corporate Author : ARMY LOGISTICS CENTER FORT LEE VA

Personal Author(s) : Sims,Charles H.

Report Date : SEP 1982

Pagination or Media Count : 16

Abstract : Cost estimating within the Army has become a specialty with the associated regulatory documents, 'How-to-do' guidebooks, and training programs. Within these guidelines, much flexibility is allowed regarding specific analytic techniques used in developing the various cost estimates. Some analytical techniques currently used are not mathematically sound and hence lead to errors in the resulting estimate. This article describes two such techniques with recommended alternative techniques that should produce more accurate estimates. The first technique shows that the simple addition of point estimates may not result in the most likely cost prediction.

Descriptors :   *Logistics support, *Statistical analysis, *Cost estimates, *Army procurement, Weapon systems, Mathematical models, Mathematical prediction, Error analysis, Life cycle costs, Cost overruns, Costs, Analysis of variance, Computations, Graphs, Management planning and control, Management information systems, Conferencing(Communications), Symposia

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE