Accession Number : ADP001579

Title :   The Use of Box-Jenkins Methodology in Forecasting DARCOM's Central Procurement Workload,

Corporate Author : ARMY PROCUREMENT RESEARCH OFFICE FORT LEE VA

Personal Author(s) : Correia,Charles A.

Report Date : JUN 1983

Pagination or Media Count : 10

Abstract : This paper addresses the development of a time series model to forecast the central procurement workload in the U.S. Army Materiel Development and Readiness Command (DARCOM). The Box-Jenkins approach of Identification, Estimation and Diagnostic Checking is used to build a seasonal auto-regressive integrated moving average model (SARIMA) to forecast quarterly procurement actions (QPA), the procurement workload indicator. Models are developed using 60 and 61 data points from FY 65 through FY 79 to include 7T. Forecasted values are compared to actual values for FY 80, 81 and 82. (Author)

Descriptors :   *Mathematical models, *Time series analysis, *Army procurement, Computer programs, Forecasting, Workload, Autocorrelation, Parameters, Tables(Data), Value, Comparison

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE