Accession Number : ADP001813

Title :   Modeling Urban Fire Growth,


Personal Author(s) : Waterman,T. E. ; Takata,A. N.

Report Date : 1982

Pagination or Media Count : 7

Abstract : Prediction of the fire behavior of an urban area subjected to a nuclear attack is necessary for evaluating damage, casualties, and the effectiveness of countermeasures. The major development of computerized urban fire spread models occured in the late 1960s. Each employed various techniques, primarily of a statistical nature, to make calculations manageable within the available computer memories. The basic philosophy developed in the early model was to apply calculated ignition probabilities to local city areas called tracts (several blocks of relatively uniform characteristics) by Monte Carlo techniques. Unfortunately, computer capabilities in the early 1960s were such that the time required for one fire spread calculation in a tract of 100 buildings equalled or exceeded that which would occur in the real fire. The more recent IITRI model will be examined here. It has been modified over time to include effects of fire suppression efforts and blast-suppressed ignitions and to refine prediction of spread by firebrands. Most recently, the model was adapted for use in regions of moderate blast damage.

Descriptors :   *Nuclear explosion damage, *Explosion effects, *Fires, *Flame propagation, Growth(General), Area coverage, Ignition, Combustion, Casualties, Computerized simulation, Predictions, Countermeasures, Fire suppression, Damage assessment, Urban areas, Vulnerability, Data acquisition, Methodology, Symposia

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE