Accession Number : ADP001816

Title :   Global-Scale Obscuration by Mass Fire Smoke,

Corporate Author : PHYSICAL DYNAMICS INC LA JOLLA CA

Personal Author(s) : Kreiss,William T. ; Palmer,Thomas Y.

Report Date : 1983

Pagination or Media Count : 3

Abstract : Fire has been a major weapon in wars for centuries. In a conflict involving nuclear weapons, major fires will form and their smoke will effect later weapon effectiveness and the post attack environment. The analysis of the probability of large-scale mass fires and conflagrations is obviously one which must arrive at joint probability densities of fires occurring simultaneously over widely separated areas. In this study, the fire areas in the United States were chosen as southern California, the Pacific Northwest, the northern Rockies, the Lake States and the South. The data was grouped on a yearly basis, no attempt being made to develop smaller intervals or areas. Conditional probabilities were computed for each area, given that a large fire had occurred in another area during the same year.

Descriptors :   *Nuclear explosion damage, *Explosion effects, *Smoke, *Obscuration, Fires, Postattack operations, Environments, Weapon systems, Deployment, Weapon system effectiveness, Weapon delivery, Systems analysis, Probability, Scenarios, California, Washington(State), Oregon

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE