Accession Number : ADP002314

Title :   Application of Risk Analysis: Response from a Systems Division,

Corporate Author : AIR FORCE BUSINESS RESEARCH MANAGEMENT CENTER WRIGHT-PATTERSON AFB OH

Personal Author(s) : Kerns,W. R. ; Tankersley,M. C.

Report Date : 15 JUL 1983

Pagination or Media Count : 5

Abstract : A review of theoretical literature reveals that most technical aspects of risk analysis have become a reasonably well-defined process with many sophisticated techniques in existence. A major conclusion from this review is, however, that a primary need exists to develop a better understanding of risk analysis in order to enhance its application. Also needed are better tools to enhance use of both subjective judgment and group decision processes. A major concern in using the group decision and consensus building techniques seems to be the need to eliminate undue influence of persuasion, previous expressed opinion, majority opinion and higher level arm twisting. Many researchers suggest training to improve use of available techniques in the hope that it would lead to increased application of risk analysis in the acquisition process.

Descriptors :   *Systems analysis, *Risk, Decision making, Surveys, Questionnaires, Air Force systems command

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE