Accession Number : ADP002786

Title :   An Application of the Causal-Integrative Model,


Personal Author(s) : Somers,I. A. ; Gardiner,P. C.

Report Date : 1983

Pagination or Media Count : 3

Abstract : Historical analyses of program acquisitions indicate that the probability of cost growth and/or schedule slippages is high. Many research efforts have been directed at identifying the causal factors leading to these changes in program performance. Much of the research has been devoted to modeling the acquisition process with the goal being a more effective control of program performance. A common observation of researchers is that the acquisition process is a complex and interrelated set of events. As such, any comprehensive model that claims to represent this process must reflect these interrelated activities, many of which can be described by feedback loops. This paper discusses one such model that utilizes the Systems Dynamics approach to simulation to portray the processes that form collectively the program acquisition cycle. The Causal-Integrative Model (CIM) was just presented in its conceptual form at the Management of Risk and Uncertainty Symposium in February, 1981, at the U.S. Air Force Academy, Colorado. This paper reports on the computer-based operational form of the CIM. The results of applying the computerized model to one acquisition program are presented. (Author)

Descriptors :   *Government procurement, *Contract administration, *Management planning and control, *Models, *Computer applications, Acquisition, Contracts, Costs, Cost estimates, Cost overruns, Productivity, Risk, Planning, Strategy, Symposia

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE