Accession Number : ADP002799

Title :   On 'Before' and 'After' Cost Comparisons,


Personal Author(s) : Stark,R. M.

Report Date : 1983

Pagination or Media Count : 3

Abstract : Comparisons of a priori cost estimates with a posteriori payments is about as pervasive as it is instinctive. A new result of mathematical optimization and probability theories leads to the unexpected conclusion that such comparisons, even for many idealized engineering designs, appear to be invalid. The paper demonstrates that before and after costs are unit samples from populations with different probability distributions.

Descriptors :   *Government procurement, *Contract administration, *Cost estimates, Comparison, Mathematical prediction, Probability distribution functions, Operations research, Symposia

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE