Accession Number : ADP006952

Title :   Inertia and Adaptation in the Sequential Processing of Information,

Corporate Author : ALPHATECH INC BURLINGTON MA

Personal Author(s) : Entine, Elliot E.

Report Date : 17 APR 1992

Pagination or Media Count : 5

Abstract : The contrast-inertia model of Einhorn and Hogarth (1987) suggests that decisionmakers revise their beliefs differently depending on the order in which they view a sequence of confirming and disconfirming evidence. Results reported in Entin et al. (1989) support this hypothesized order effect. It has been suggested that the order effect may be sensitive to the elapsed time between information presentations. The current experiment replicated the findings of Entin et al. using a different procedure and longer time intervals between information presentations. Results again demonstrate the order effect predicted by the Einhorn and Hogarth theory, and also show that this effect is robust for longer time intervals. We conclude that the order in which pieces of evidence are presented to decisionmakers has a critical effect on their eventual beliefs, sometimes resulting in contradictory opinions as to the likelihood of a threatening event.

Descriptors :   *INFORMATION PROCESSING, *DECISION MAKING, *SEQUENCES(MATHEMATICS), CONTRAST, INERTIA, MODELS, THEORY, TIME INTERVALS, ADAPTATION, INERTIA.

Subject Categories : Numerical Mathematics
      Psychology

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE