Accession Number : ADP007197

Title :   Some Results in the Simulation and Analysis of the Shape of Spread of Epidemics on a Grid,

Corporate Author : HERIOT-WATT UNIV EDINBURGH (UNITED KINGDOM)

Personal Author(s) : Lloyd, Michael

Report Date : 1992

Pagination or Media Count : 4

Abstract : Models concerned with the spatial features of epidemic spread are often defined in terms of a nearest-neighbour grid network (Mollison and Kuulasmaa 1985). It is strongly conjectured, and can be proved in certain cases (eg Cox and Durrett 1988), that the infected area has (asymptotically) a well-defined shape. The present work concerns computer analysis of the shape of spread of a discrete-time single-parameter infection process on an eight neighbour lattice. Data from such simulations can be fitted with a particular group of three parameters which reveal features of the shape of the expanding epidemic.

Descriptors :   *COMPUTERS, GRIDS, MODELS, NETWORKS, PARAMETERS, SHAPE, SIMULATION, TIME, WORK.

Subject Categories : Computer Programming and Software

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE