Accession Number : ADP008720

Title :   The Role of Human Error in the Estimation and Management of Risks,


Personal Author(s) : Freudenburg, William R.

Report Date : JAN 1993

Pagination or Media Count : 9

Abstract : Early risk analyses were often subject to the 'hardware fallacy--the understandable but erroneous assumption that almost all the risks in technological systems could be understood in terms of physical and biological variables. Accumulating evidence shows that this assumption was wrong. The 'real risk' in most technological systems are shaped profoundly by humans as well as hardware, and system designs based on inadequate understandings of predictable human behaviors can lead to increased rather than decreased risk. Risk assessments are also produced by humans, and accumulating evidence make it clear that experts who calculate risk are prone to the same types of errors and biases that afflict 'normal people.' In addition, the real risks of technological systems include the impacts that are created for the broader society, and those impacts depend on the facts that get through to the public, not the ones that are believed in the agencies or technical community


Subject Categories : Administration and Management
      Operations Research

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE